American command of the seas in the Western Pacific has been essential to U.S. regional strategy over the past seventy years. The U.S. Navy’s dominance facilitated the uninterrupted flow of seaborne commerce, promoting transpacific access to markets and offering a chance at prosperity for those participating in the network of maritime trade. The naval service’s forward presence in Asia and its ability to respond rapidly to crises also deterred aggression and reassured allies, preserving a favorable balance of power.

A “gray-zone” conflict is something like an incipient insurgency. French Army officer, Algerian War veteran, and counterinsurgency theorist David Galula notes that an incumbent government finds it hard to cope with “cold revolutionary war” because it remains unclear whether there will be a hot revolutionary war.

Deterring aggression in the “gray zone” is hard. The keeper of an existing order—an order such as freedom of the sea—finds itself conflicted. That’s because gray-zone aggressors deliberately refuse to breach the threshold between uneasy peace and armed conflict, justifying a martial response. Instead they demolish the status quo little by little and replace it with something new.

The Chinese navy’s surface forces are on the march. Destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and fast-attack craft comprise the surface fleet, along with—most strikingly—China’s first aircraft carrier, a refurbished Soviet-built flattop dubbed Liaoning. 

Why a little-known waterway is so important to the world’s two strongest powers and how nationalism could lock them into a spiral of aggression. Guests include Robert Kaplan and Toshi Yoshihara.

One way to gauge China’s longer term intentions is to assess what Chinese leaders are saying today. President Xi Jinping has articulated a vision for China over the next few decades. This vision has been termed the “Chinese Dream” or the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” These slogans capture goals, milestones, and timelines.